after last week's tooth hooky oscar movie marathon (juno, once, atonement, and there will be blood), i'm feeling better about talking predictions - even if the splashy ceremony itself is still up in the air. i'm hoping our local pub will have a pool again anyway, and there are still some serious viewing gaps, as you'll see - so hey, internets, want to make this a group effort? if you've seen some of these babies, add your predictions as comments and i'll transfer 'em up here. go go kidchamp critictron 2008!
as in previous years, my picks are italicized and movies i've seen get asterisks.
george clooney - michael clayton*
daniel day-lewis - there will be blood*
johnny depp - sweeney todd
viggo mortensen - eastern promises
tommy lee jones - in the valley of elah
daniel day-lewis was predictably great, though james dean as jett rink in giant was better in the same kind of role. johnny depp as a quirky and/or tim burton lead is old news, and i predict general clooney fatigue. don't think many people saw the other two. my money's on DDL.
best supporting actor
casey affleck - the assassination of jesse james by the coward robert ford
javier bardem - no country for old men*
hal holbrook - into the wild
philip seymour hoffman - charlie wilson's war
tom wilkinson - michael clayton*
it's a bit shabby that i'm again picking the one performance i've seen,** sure, but javier bardem gave me nightmares.
cate blanchett - elizabeth: the golden age
julie christie - away from her
marion cotillard - la vie en rose
laura linney - the savages
ellen page - juno*
i've heard the elizabeth sequel sucked, and i think cate blanchett has a better shot at supporting actress. for my beloved ex-boss's sake, i hope laura wins - she's her sister. ellen page was good, but she's so young. julie christie, for she has the golden globe already and i have a small hunch.
best supporting actress
cate blanchett - i'm not there
ruby dee - american gangster
saoirse ronan - atonement*
amy ryan - gone baby gone
tilda swinton - michael clayton*
the woman-as-dylan conceit is very sexy, and cate blanchett is made of magic.
falling slowly - once*
happy working song - enchanted
raise it up - august rush
so close - enchanted
that's how you know - enchanted
i made the mistake of thinking that the hat trick flick would take something home in this category last year (it was dreamgirls, and the oscar went to the melissa etheridge song from an inconvenient truth). this time around, i think the three disney numbers will cancel each other out - and i think it's been a long time since disney's ashman/menken era of musical dominance. i know nothing about august rush, but i know that everyone who saw once will vote for glen hansard's entry. seeing him perform it live with marketa irglova* (c'mon, guys!) would maybe make my ovaries explode. in a good way.
paul thomas anderson - there will be blood*
joel coen and ethan coen - no country for old men*
julian schnabel - the diving bell and the butterfly
tony gilroy - michael clayton*
jason reitman - juno*
the coen brothers directed no country for old men with such assurance that their choices seemed inevitable. i've heard that schnabel's work on butterfly was impossibly clever, though, and i'm desperate to see it; i might revisit this one.
no country for old men*
there will be blood*
atonement's celebrated tracking shot is, unfortunately, seriously overrated. the best thing about that movie was keira knightley's green dress - it was epic, and i mean that in all seriousness. juno's big splash will be the writing nod for diablo cody, i think. especially if schnabel gets best director, no country for old men will get best picture.
*who was seventeen (according to the wall street journal review) when the film was made - damn.
**ETA: i finally saw michael clayton last night (02.23), so i'm updating my asterisks accordingly. i haven't changed my mind as to predictions, so i'm leaving commentary as is.